"The threshold for speculating shoes is low, and you can speculate with enough funds. It can be said that almost everyone speculates in shoes." A senior shoe industry person said that this also led to chaos in the shoe circle: many shoes "do not sell without a price increase. ".
Even so, there is no need to worry about sales. In the past, sneakers that were sold for hundreds or even tens of thousands of dollars higher than the price of tens of thousands of transactions on the shoe platform exist, so that many players who fry shoes have made a lot of money, but Now this lively way of making money is facing a cruel winter.
Since the beginning of this year, the enthusiasm for consumption caused by the inflated prices has been sluggish. Everyone has also shouted the slogan of "shoes are not fried". Most people in the shoe circle originally thought it was just a gust of wind, and the past will be fine. However, affected by the HM incident in March, the huge explosive barrel hidden in the scrambled shoe ring was finally ignited. Both the transaction volume and the price fell, and it became the consensus of the industry that shoe vendors began their final struggle. .
Among them, not only Adi’s YEEZY, but also NIKE’s AJ, Dunk and other classic sneakers are all showing a clear downward trend, and even a large number of new styles have fallen below the original price. If you look at NIKE’s shoe sales App "snkrs", or even There are many sneakers that have been on sale, including AJ1, AJ4, AJ5, etc., which are all hot styles in previous years, and no one wants even the original price this year.
Many shoe dealers have thousands of pairs of shoes in their hands, and the price has fallen from 1500 to about 700; domestic products such as Li Ning and other shoes that have been sold 60 times the price have not ushered in a consumption boom; they have even lost money. Players of 500,000 yuan, today's shoe circle seems to be a mansion.
Many people who are closely related to the shoe industry are hard to say.
Financial professional players have yet to understand the price trend of sneakers
He Zhi, financial practitioner, amateur shoe speculator
To be honest, trading shoes is not like playing stocks. If it is not based on long-term accumulated market credit, it may collapse at any time.
"First of all, I don't think you need to panic too much! The mainstream of the market is still NIKE, Adi! What we do now only need to be patient!" A tycoon in the shoe circle said in the WeChat group, I think this is one after another. The exclamation mark hinted at his panic.
After playing with shoes for a few years, there are losses and gains. Of course, I earn more. According to past experience, a large-scale price drop in the market is not necessarily a bad thing.
Prior to this, the "off season" of the shoe circle was difficult to appear, and after the HM incident, the shoe circle officially entered the off season. In this round of large-scale price declines, the shoe circle experienced a round of reshuffle, and retail investors who could not hold their shoes were out. Naturally, there are fewer people smashing prices, so you don't have to pay a lot of money to grab the goods.
Except for the limited number of shoes, they are generally two to three hundred yuan higher than the selling price when they are first released; after that, the price will be reduced to 50% to 80% of the original price over time, which is what the industry calls the low price position; but one Years later, most shoes will rise to a high price, which is also the best opportunity to sell.
This law of price rises and falls is easy to understand. First of all, because everyone wanted to experience it when it was first released, the price of shoes was high. Then it was because the shoes increased in unsightly colors or when the quantity of goods was sufficient. For example, sometimes a pair of new shoes was sold in the country, which would inevitably reduce the price. , But the value of a pair of shoes is fixed, and the seller wants to make money, so it will stabilize at a low price and fluctuate slightly. Also, because there are fewer and fewer stocks in circulation in the market, the scarcity of goods is expensive, and the price is naturally expensive. But from the perspective of this year, shoe prices are not as traceable as before.
In April, some bigwigs suggested that those with money should buy slowly, and those with no money should observe more! Observe first! Buy slowly! Do not complete a one-time position opening, after all, it is still a process of slowly dropping prices.
But in June, it was the peak period of summer sneakers like YEEZY, but so far, several YEEZYs in my hand have shown a trend of price reduction, such as a YEEZY called black and red, with a gold code of 36.5. At that time, it was possible to pay 3,000 yuan, but in order to give it a try, I still held back. I did not expect that now I can only sell 2,029 yuan on the goods, deducting the additional costs such as handling fees. In the end, there is no loss or no profit, but for Personally, this is obviously a loss. Each pair has fallen by more than 1,000 yuan, and more than a dozen pairs of shoes have been lost in this way.
"If you are expensive, you will love it. If you are not expensive, you will not love it." This sentence is also heard from elsewhere, but after calming down, you will find that after the capital enters, the price of shoes is inflated. There are so many people who go for shoes with a thousand dollars. Love it? Now that I think about it, I am also a member of the leek army. The big picker sells it to the little picker, all of which are bubbles.
Follow the trend to speculate domestic products, but most of them have prices but no market
Wang Yong, shoe dealer
Since April, I have followed the trend with some people in the shoe circle to speculate domestic products, but it is far from smooth sailing as I imagined.
First of all, limited-edition shoes such as YEEZY and AJ are not the first domestic speculation. This kind of limited-edition shoes are snapped up and sold at a price increase. The secondary market is not the first of Chinese people. This market belongs to the world. So even if speculation is banned in the country, the price of this item still cannot be lowered. After all, it can't be sold in the country. I can't possibly grab it and sell it abroad. In the end, it can only be bought domestically. If you want to buy it, you have to pay for postage and taxes to buy it from abroad. On the contrary, it is superfluous.
It is precisely because of this that the foreign market for domestic shoes is very small, and there is almost no circulation, and the main market is domestic. It can be said that if your domestic shoe dealers do not fry, their prices will not be high. However, since March of this year, shoe dealers switched to domestic sneakers, which led to a surge in popularity of domestic sneakers and a huge increase in demand. At this time, the domestic products in the secondary market became sweet and sour. Now it seems that this is a bubble.
At that time, domestically-made shoes were very popular, and we first scanned the goods on a large scale, which was to buy out some gold-sized sneakers. In this way, you can set the pricing power, and then everyone will increase the price to buy sneakers and earn the difference in the middle. At first, the effect was good. Later, as the consumption enthusiasm of domestic shoes receded, there were not as many people who actually bought the sneakers. You can't get the goods in your hand, and you can't or are not willing to drop the price. So let the wind hype up the domestic sneakers and flicker the next wave of leeks.
But sneakers are not pork. If you don't buy shoes today, you can buy them the day after tomorrow. Most domestic vendors are sold domestically, and there are actually few people who wear them. In Shenzhen, most indoor courts are still NIKE and Adi.
Someone in my circle of friends bought a pair of Li Ning sneakers at a price of 1659 yuan, but now it has fallen to about 700, a loss of more than half. This shoe friend is still at a loss. Several big players have stocked thousands of pairs, including the styles that were originally priced at 1,500 yuan and sold to 49,999 yuan. However, due to platform restrictions, these high-priced shoes were either taken off the shelves or directly Falling in price, most of the limited Li Ning shoes have returned to near the original price, and there are also a few high-priced shoes because the big players are wearing them there. Once the goods in their hands are sold out, it is estimated that there will be a sharp drop. Anyway, I lost tens of thousands of yuan, and I am going to stop getting involved in the shoe circle after the domestic products in my hand are sold out.
The shoe ring is made for cutting leeks like the coin ring, but the shoe ring has deeper water
Xu Qi, a shoe speculator who started in the currency circle
In the currency circle, I made more than 1 million yuan through mining coins. Later, because I wanted to expand my income and go to fry shoes, I did not expect to lose more than 500,000 yuan and suffered heavy losses.
The coin circle was born for cutting leeks, and so was the shoe circle. This time I really felt it, but I didn't expect the water in the shoe circle to be deeper.
At that time, I heard from my friends that frying shoes can make money, so I have invested part of the money in the shoe circle since 2019, which is about 800,000. I stocked a lot of AJ1 shoes from other shoe vendors at low prices, and I did make a profit at that time. Quite a few, slowly explored the doorway. For example, the price of shoes will become more and more expensive. It does not mean that the original price is more expensive, but as more and more investment joins, the price of the secondary market will become higher and higher, and the profit of speculating sneakers will also increase. more.
However, the way we stock up these sneakers is to buy them in the secondary market and wait until the price increases before selling them. In fact, there is a big risk. The secondary market price is already very expensive. If the increase does not reach the expected price, there is still The possibility of losing money, of course, I will still control this risk. Once the price has a downward trend, I will sell it, because once the price goes down, it is basically difficult to get it back.
However, there have been too many people who have been speculating shoes in the past two years. It is really difficult for the primary market to buy a few products at the original price. It may be too busy for a long time to make ends meet. So in addition to collecting shoes, you also need to rely on software to grab shoes online in order to compete with players in the primary market.
I am now slowly learning to use software to snap up NIKE and Adi shoes, and later I also learned how to build an online method to grab shoes.
First of all, you need more than one hundred mobile phones and registration cards, and then register hundreds of NIKE accounts. Once NIKE sells any shoes, as long as I think it can make money, I will open more than one hundred when I am eligible to buy shoes on the same day. Mobile phones, through software to control the mobile phone to grab at the same time, basically two or three wins. At that time, the barb style of AJ1 grabbed two and made nearly 20,000 yuan, so you can think about the profit. .
If you sell a pair of sneakers in the secondary market, you can get a profit of 300 yuan, and it is possible to reach a profit of several thousand yuan. Repeated operations in this way, one month can also grab dozens of sneakers by purchasing fashion brands through software, and it is basically no problem to earn one to two million.
But with the emergence of the black swan before, whether it is AJ or YEEZY, the person who bought it is still there, but I still have 800 pairs of sneakers that are hundreds of thousands higher than the original price. They have begun to fall in price, and some have broken. The sneakers on the platform fell a little a day, and lost almost 500,000 yuan. Thinking about it, it’s a big deal, and now I can only hope to clear the stock quickly.
Recently, I saw a colleague who said that the development of trend culture has made young people not rational enough to consume sneakers and lack patience, so we are always profitable. However, with the changes in the market, the false prosperity bubble of the shoe circle has been punctured, and the tight supply and demand situation is difficult to be maintained by bulk shoe dealers for a long time. The slogan "Shoes don't fry" has come true.